Analysis of Influencing Factors and Economic Effects of Level of Social Security of Jiangxi Province
|Course||Management Science and Engineering|
|Keywords||Level of Social Security Influencing factor Economic effects Cointegration theory|
Social security has been a social livelihood problem in which the party and government departments, experts and scholars actively interest in. Level of social security represents the amount of features of social security, directly reflects the degree of social security and the size of capital requirements, and is an indicator that the total social security expenditure to GDP. It is not only influenced by economic and non-economic factors, but also affects the macroeconomy. Exploring these factors and their relationship with the social security level and analyzing its economic effects are important theoretical and practical significance.In this paper, Cointegration Regression Model, Error Correction Model, and Vector Autoregression Model are established based on Conintegration Theory, using data sample interval in 1990-2009 years.The results show that the level of social security of Jiangxi is in less than 6%. is consistent with the level of entire country, but is with some lag compared to economic growth. Granger causality test shows that the proportion of elderly people, unemployment, income level and the level of financial income have a significant impact on it. In the size of the existing social security expenditure, raising the level of social security is help to increase savings and expand consumption. Impulse response function shows that it helps to stably boost savings, consumption and the growth of economy, and this influence has a long sustained effect. Variance decomposition shows that, regardless of RGDP own contribution, consumption’s contribution on economic growth is greater than savings.