Research on the Sustainable Development of Forestry Industry in Fujian Province
|School||Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University|
|Keywords||forestry industry Grey relational analysis single linear regression Cobb - Douglas production function sustainable development|
Forestry industry is an important part of the national economy in Fujian Province,involved in multiple categories of the national economy’s first,second and tertiary industries. It played an important role in promoting the rapid development of Fujian,accelerating economy development in mountainous areas,and in increasing farmers’income as well as raising the employment rate. Fujian Province has abundant forestry resources,location advantages and complete forestry industry development policy system. So resent years the forestry industry has a high degree of development in Fujian. Nevertheless,the disproportion between the various industries in Fujian Province’s forestry industry,industrial relations imbalance, irrational industrial structure, and other issues are still largely limited the sustainable development of forestry industry. Therefore,this article designed by the analysis of Fujian provincial forestry industry development and characteristics. Then studied the structural characteristics of the forestry industry and its adjustment measures and predicted the output values of forestry industry and the first, second and tertiary industries. Finally it analyzed the relationship between forestry industry input and output. Based on these,this article aimed at providing reference value for future sustainable development of forestry industry in Fujian Province.Firstly,this article analyzed the development,characteristics and problems of Fujian Provincial forestry industry at the present stage,and then used gray relational analysis method to study the correlation of forest first, second and tertiary industries with the forestry industry output value. The correlation results were:0.7945,0.8690,0.7952,these showed that the second industry had the strongest relevance with output,the first and tertiary industries at the same level;Then used single linear regression prediction method to predict the industrial output values. The results showed that the fitting degree of the fitting regression equation was very high,its feasibility was very strong,so it could well predict the industrial values;Finally,used the form of Cobb - Douglas production function to analyze the input-output of forestry industry. The results showed that the elasticity of labor input was negative,the elasticity of capital was 0.7620,its contribution to the forestry industry output value was 73.85%,indicating that the impact of capital investment was an important factor in industrial output value of forestry. And used principal component analysis method to study the regression analysis of forestry industrial capital investments. The sum of the capital investments was 0.8959,indicating that for every increase of 1 million capital investment can make forestry industry output increased 8959 yuan. Therefore,the increase in capital investment in forestry industry can effectively promote the growth of industrial output value of forestry. Last,this article provided reference suggestions for the sustainable development of forestry industry in Fujian Province:(1)Based on the advantages of development,make efforts to improve the unfavorable factors,to achieve leapfrog development of forestry industry;(2)Positive change in development mode,adjust and optimize industrial structure;(3)Optimize human resources,innovation and technology to promote the forestry industry;(4)Increase the capital investments of forestry industry.