Base on the Supply Chain Management, Study the Demand Planning of B Company
|School||South China University of Technology|
|Keywords||Supply chain management Demand forecast process optimization Demand forecast model|
Because the shorter product shelf life, faster turnover, lower technology and full marketing’s competition , the FMCG industry focus on the supply chain management . Company B is a well-known producer for fresh dairy. It’s operation model has restrict it’s development. Author analysis the actuality and shortage and introduce the advance ideal and method of supply chain to change the framework, definitude the target and smooth the process, especially provide the information system solution to enhance the response speed and reduce the total operation cost.Demand planning is very important to a company , so we decide to study the demand planning of company B.I has studied many excellent company flow and theory knowledge of demand planning. According to the supply chain characteristics, I found the demand planning flow, make the clear definition, responsibility of department and system of demand planning and smooth the process. At the same time, we consist on optimizing and make performance management.I choose the different demand planning forecast method to match the different planning, especially further study week demand planning. I analysis the reason of fluctuate of the week demand planning and break down to formal and special demand. I use the moving average,weighted average,exponential smoothing,linear regression and Seasonal factor method to make forecast for formal demand planning .I compare the result by Cumulative Sum deviation, mean square deviation, average absolute deviation and average absolute deviation percentage method. Finally I choose the linear regression and Seasonal factor method for formal demand planning. I use Dephi method, Subjective opinion forecast and Analogy method to make the special demand planning. Using above same method to check the accuracy. Finally. I choose the Subjective opinion forecast for special demand planning. The accuracy of formal forecast is 95.9% .the accuracy of special forecast increase from 62.8% to 88.5%.I found project team to improve the supply chain in 2008. up to now, we have achieve many harvest. Finally, I summarize the optimizing demand forecast project for company B based on the supply chain management and do the summary and perspective for the future.