The Study of Developing Carbon Emission Trading Market in China under the Context of International Emission Reduction
|Keywords||Greenhouse gas emissions Emission trading system Demand and supply analysis System design|
Nowadays, as climate becomes more and more warms. It has raised global concerns about how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). To get the target of jointly reduce emissions internationally, negotiation mechanism was introduced. But as different countries emission differently and they faced different situations, it’s hard to get a breakout with negation mechanism.The Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997, offered three flexible reduction mechanisms, which is Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI) and International Emissions Trading (IET). Firstly, we described the development of the international emission trading system based on this, studying the European Union’s Emissions Trading System and Chicago Climate Exchange. And later, we analyzed the experiences in these emissions system. Secondly, we analyzed the carbon market in China, and tried to find the problems existing in the market, such as the unsustainable of the current emission reduction measures, the uncertainty of Clean Development Mechanism, the lack of carbon finance products, the lack of carbon-related regulations. Thirdly, in the paper, we analyzed the supply and demand of carbon emission trading market in China by using empirical analysis. By using extended Kaya identity to decompose the driver factors for carbon emission increasing into the energy structure, energy intensity, economic development and population size, to analysis the carbon emission factors during the period of 1996-2009 in China with logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. We can conclude that economic development was the main factor contributes to the increase of carbon emissions, while the energy intensity plays an important role in emission reduction. Then, we predicted the carbon emissions in the next 10 years by using carbon emission and GDP. According to the three emission reduction scenarios assumption, we calculate the gaps between carbon demand and supply. So, we concluded carbon emission reduction trading market need to be developed in China. By study all above, the system design of the carbon emission trading market was given in this paper; it also provides some ideas about how to develop carbon emission trading market under the context of international emission reduction.