An Construction on Financial Prediction Model of Listed Companies in China’s Manufacturer
|School||Inner Mongolia Finance and Economics College|
|Keywords||Financial crisis Warning Model Warning indicators Principal component analysis Logistic regression models|
With the rapid development of global economic integration, in particular, in 2000 China’s accession to WTO, China’s enterprises are facing competition in domestic markets not only on the international market there is increasing competition, which is an enterprise double-edged sword, on the one hand to the enterprise development opportunities, on the other businesses are also at increased risk. In the 2008 financial crisis, a large number of business failures, the face of increasingly obvious financial risk, to establish a line of possible financial risk early warning system solution for enterprise risk prediction has a vital role. China’s listed companies is an important part of the market, the development of China’s listed companies have an important role in promoting the economy, so the listed companies through effective early warning of financial risks with a very important practical significance.In recent years, listed companies in the market because of financial crisis, disadvantage, or even the main cause of their bankruptcy. Usually the financial crisis has a development, accumulation, the process of qualitative change. In this process, some sensitivity to changes in financial indicators to reflect the crisis. Therefore, by studying the changes in financial indicators, the establishment of an effective corporate financial early warning model, you can find early signs of financial distress , which can take effective measures to ensure the healthy development of enterprises. Therefore, this article through the establishment of an effective financial early warning models, for the prevention and resolution of the financial crisis has a vital role.With the rapid development of China’s capital market, the complexity of the economic field, uncertainty has become increasingly prominent financial distress of listed companies as well as more and more cases of bankruptcy. Financial crisis not only endanger the survival of listed companies and their development, but also affect investors, creditors and the national interest. Therefore, the listed company’s financial crisis factors and the model for research is very necessary. Therefore, this article through the establishment of an effective financial early warning models, for the prevention and resolution of the financial crisis has a vital role.This article first warning on the meaning of corporate finance, functions and characteristics have made the necessary analysis, at the conclusion of domestic and foreign financial early warning based on the results presented based on principal component analysis and Logistic regression methods of forecasting method, we obtain a specific principle and calculation process, and to China’s listed manufacturing companies as samples, building industry, the financial distress prediction models.