Study on the Impact of Exchange Rate to Export Prices of China
|Keywords||Exchange rate Export commodity prices Imperfect competition Due to market pricing Regression analysis|
1973, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the major developed countries adopted a floating exchange rate system, frequent fluctuations in exchange rates, the impact of the exchange rate on the price level is increasingly becoming the focus of attention by the theoretical departments and practices department. In 1994, China carried out the reform of the exchange rate regime, the implementation of the single market-based managed floating exchange rate regime, the domestic scholars began to concern the impact of the exchange rate on the price level, due to floating inadequate, no significant effect on exports, during which concern the focus the impact of the exchange rate on import prices and the impact of the exchange rate on the domestic price level. Improving the exchange rate regime reform in 2005, especially since the interbank foreign exchange market maker system was formally implemented in 2006, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated amid appreciation of the state, the study of the impact of the exchange rate on export prices gradually increased. In recent years, the increasing appreciation of the yuan makes Chinese exports increasingly prominent issue between the ability of the enterprise price regulation of exchange rate fluctuations. Especially in the environment of the global economic downturn in 2009, China has become the world's second-largest trading nation, but at the same time facing the shock appreciation of the RMB, the outlet pressure of the world market reduced demand and the problem of China's export commodity structure is irrational, in this case, starting from the impact of exchange rates on export commodity prices, focusing on analysis of the ability of Chinese enterprises export pricing and export commodity structure, has important research value. In this paper, imperfect competition theory and due to market pricing theory as the basis for the select export commodity prices and the RMB exchange rate on the basis of self-preparation of monthly export commodity price index, the main study sample, combined with the marginal cost of export commodities, market demand, competitors factors of price level, on the assumption that the market has not fully competitive, export enterprises in pursuit of infinite elasticity of supply of goods to maximize profits and export enterprises on the basis of the establishment of a model to explain the real effective exchange rate of China's monthly export commodity prices, and by factors test exchange rate affect the equation to find a foothold in the reality of Chinese background, discuss the to improve Chinese export enterprises pricing and improve the structure of export commodities, and provide a basis for decision making related practice departments. The main content of this paper through three drill-down: the first part, the exchange rate on export prices affect the theoretical analysis. To describe the impact of the exchange rate on the price level of the exchange rate pass-definition as a starting point, simple given from the law of one price and purchasing power parity theory of exchange rate and price relationship start combing the impact of foreign exchange rate on export prices of theory development and evolution process, as well as the impact of exchange rates on the transfer coefficient of the export price of factors, in particular, is imperfect competition in the market and export enterprises due to market pricing behavior of the two factors, a better explanation of the change in status of the exchange rate on the export price impact coefficient The theoretical framework of this study. The second part of the preparation of the sample index. Since its start in January 2005 due to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China General Administration of Customs announced China's monthly exports of goods price index, the index for the research needs and to ensure continuity, \species (different types published annually) the total amount of export volume and export of the commodity groups, using the same calculation method and the General Administration of Customs - unit value index to ensure data validity of screening principles for commodity groups - excluding the number and / or the amount missing the category, the validity of the lower rounding the number is less than 10 units of the category as well as repetitive category own preparation of monthly export commodity price index since January 2000. Provide a continuous sample basis for empirical test. The third part, the RMB exchange rate of China's monthly export commodity prices affect the empirical analysis and conclusions. Unit root test of the value of China's monthly export commodity price index, the real effective exchange rate of RMB, the producer price index, industrial production index of developed economies, the world's export commodities unit from January 2000 to June 2010, by the inspection steady stepwise multiple regression analysis of the sexual time series data to avoid multicollinearity and combined heteroscedasticity test and autocorrelation test, ensure the validity of the analysis based on excluding the impact of Chinese export price is not a significant cost and demand factors, the resulting based on the realistic background of the Chinese exchange rate affect the equation, draw the main factors to affect China's monthly export commodity prices is the conclusion of the RMB exchange rate and the level of competitors' prices, the impact of approximately 86.6% and 47.9%, respectively. Shows that the Chinese export enterprises in reference to foreign competitors of its kind in the world commodity price levels, and take full account of exchange rate fluctuation on the basis of commodity pricing. Export commodity structure analysis and empirical findings show that China exports large commodity still food, raw materials and processed products mainly small proportion of high-tech content of high value-added goods, Chinese goods more market-price advantage , resulting in the export enterprises can not absorb the impact of price changes due to the appreciation of the renminbi in order to ensure market share, pricing power is very low. Therefore, the government in the lead and help export enterprises capacity adjustment, industrial upgrading, should focus on the characteristics of goods, commodities advantage with independent property rights protection and development of intellectual property to develop and occupy the international market. And pointed out that, for worldwide prices of raw materials and labor and the decline in demand in the economic crisis and the world market for Chinese goods tend to be saturated phenomenon, export enterprises should focus on in the future production operations less concerned about the cost and demand factors, Integrated reduce the impact of exchange rate movements on export enterprises.