Research of a Medium and Long-term Load Forecasting Method
|School||Huazhong University of Science and Technology|
|Course||Proceedings of the|
|Keywords||Power system Medium - and long - term load forecasting Genetic Algorithms Multiple linear regression model Cointegration test Error correction model|
The medium - and long - term load forecasting of power system is the prediction of one year or longer power systems and electricity , electricity demand indicators . The medium - and long - term load forecasting is a vision of the power system provides power for the electric power system planning department , the grid planning the basic data to make medium - and long - term load forecasting based on national economic development situation , and then only on the grid renovation and expansion , at the same time it is also power system operation departments to arrange an important basis for annual maintenance plan and run . The main factors of the power system and long-term load growth , including the development of the national economy , the population , the output value of the unit consumption , the adjustment of industrial structure easily quantifiable factors , while difficult to quantify factors including social and political conditions , weather , price policy , and with the improvement in the level of market power system , power system long - term load forecasting problem becomes more complicated , more difficult . Firstly an overview of the electric power industry in recent years , as well as other industry scholars in the medium and long-term forecasts ( mainly medium - and long - term load forecasting of power system ) the achievements and the development direction of the research areas , a comprehensive comparison of the various methods of more mature the merits of its scope of application . This article draws on the theory of cointegration and error correction model often used in the field of economic forecasts , import and export trade prediction econometrics , again based on analysis of the the cointegration theory for feasibility and application of the medium - and long - term load forecasting model , borrowed the idea of the factor model based on a multiple linear regression , the combination of the genetic algorithm , co-integration test and error correction model , to establish a new medium-and long-term genetic regression load forecasting model , the application of the model of a the provincial grid medium - and long - term load forecasting , and prediction accuracy , and adaptability to assess .