China 's 2020 carbon reduction commitments to achieve the research
|School||Shaanxi Normal University|
|Course||Population, Resources and Environmental Economics|
|Keywords||Carbon intensity Emission reduction commitments Decoupling indicators Quota allocation|
Frequent natural disasters, extreme weather, the climate issue has become a major concern of the international community in general, and global warming is also a growing number of climate anomalies. Problem of climate warming scientists really only reason to continue to explore the same time, the international community is also in line with the principle of \, complexity, and diversity of interests between the countries, the slow process of international action on climate issues. In the continuous process of negotiations, while constantly clear the historical responsibility of developed countries to greenhouse gas emissions, emissions reduction in developing countries is also on the international agenda. The Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012, the international community in the Assemblies of the Member States of the United Nations Committee on Climate Change held in Copenhagen, Denmark in December 2009 to discuss the problems of the international community of the post-Kyoto era reduction. The Copenhagen meeting, China as the largest developing country, According to related statistics carbon dioxide emissions has surpassed the United States as the largest emitter in the world, has become the focus of attention from all sides. Chinese President Hu Jintao at the Conference on the solemn commitment \make its due contribution to the conference process, unanimously endorsed by the international community. However, the Chinese population in the world's first, the energy structure dominated by coal, but is in a stage of rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, and carbon dioxide emissions only in a period of rapid growth. Pressure of carbon dioxide emissions, so the Chinese success to achieve the emission reduction commitments, how much pressure, how to mobilize the provinces to actively participate in emission reduction, complete the commitment, the number of provinces in the completion of the emission reduction commitments disposable emissions, how to study undoubtedly has great practical significance and significance. The first part of this study, the analysis of the background of our commitment to emission reduction, indicating that China is facing the abatement international pressure and domestic realities, described the significance of emission reduction commitments. This section also briefly introduced the article by build scenarios Matrix prediction research methods and innovation of China's carbon emissions. Study the second part of the evaluation and research of carbon dioxide and economic development are reviewed, carbon emission intensity, decoupling evaluation and environmental Kuznets curve, decoupling model through the Environmental Kuznets Curve, OECD and Tapio decoupling model to learn more about the criteria and application of Tapio decoupling model, at the same time conducted a literature review of the latest research on international decoupled indicators. Then, the part of the major international emission reduction program review, comparing the theoretical basis and application of emission reduction quota allocation based on the level of control and base a quota allocation are two main emission reduction program, further explanation. The third part of the study through historical analysis and scenario analysis scenarios to build China's future economic development and decoupled state matrix, predicted in 2020 the possibility of achieving the emission reduction targets. This section first application IPCC (2006) recommended method for calculation of the 1978 reform and opening up in China to carbon dioxide emissions, to combine the Tapio flexible decoupling indicators of economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions since China's reform and opening up to sort out, summarized forecast China's 2020 economic growth and decoupling three scenarios. Followed by the study of literature, select authoritative economists forecast analysis of China's economic development, the formation of the three scenarios for 2020 economic growth, the last build scenarios matrix the application decoupled equation and carbon intensity formula of 2020 can be achieved emission reduction commitments forecast. Under conditions of Part IV of the study first calculated China's 2020 promise of absolute CO2 emissions, and learn from the international community quota allocation scheme based on the of patrimonialism principle, the principle of equality and the principle of capacity to pay, distributive justice standards, commitment to complete The absolute emission credits in the Provincial allocated. Describes the differences of three different allocation principle, the emission credits obtained by the provinces. Then build general scenario of of 2020 provinces carbon demand under predicted, and egalitarian principles and the principle of capacity to pay under the provinces quota case comparison analysis, and differences in the reasons put forward the principle of distribution suited to China's national conditions. The fifth study were to complete the recommendation on the allocation of the amount of commitment and commitment. To complete the commitment, combined with existing research that actively promote the study of low-carbon economy, improve energy efficiency, upgrading the industrial structure, the development of low-carbon financial measures, can contribute to the completion of the emission reduction commitments. Commitment amount allocated proposed to speed up the initial emission quotas defined, taking into account the fairness and efficiency of the allocation actively to establish and improve the emissions trading market in China, and promote the completion of China's emission reduction commitments, through the development of the market, the rational allocation of emission quotas better to promote a balance between the regions, to achieve a balanced development in reducing emissions. The article summarized the last of this study overall.