Forecasting of Labor Supply and Demand in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2020
|Keywords||Labor supply Labor demand Labor force participation rate Employment elasticity|
In this paper, Zhejiang Province, the fifth census data and the \Forecast labor supply , the paper first deduced using the age -shifting algorithm under confinement of the population by age else . On this basis, further consideration of migration and the impact of migration on the total population , and thus the working-age population predicted to be amended. And then based on Zhejiang Economic and likely future trends of the future labor force participation rates given were high, medium and low three possible conditions, predict 2010-2020 Zhejiang movements in labor supply . The results show that the labor force participation rate in the middle level, in 2020 , Zhejiang Province, labor supply will reach 4624 million. Forecasting the demand for labor , the demand for paper in the labor and economic growth there is a high correlation between the theoretical basis, using time series data fitting future Zhejiang's economic growth rate , and then were using differential method and the regression method estimates the Zhejiang employment elasticity of economic growth , employment elasticity use this indicator to predict the demand for labor in Zhejiang Province . Predicted , Zhejiang Province, the demand for labor will show a growth trend in 2020 will reach 4482 million. According to this paper, the number of labor supply and demand , Zhejiang Province, 2010-2020 forecasts can be drawn, when higher levels of labor force participation rate , minus the demand supply gap in 2020 was 334 million ; moderate level , the supply surplus will decrease faster, and in 2020 was 142 million ; levels in the labor force participation rate is low, the labor supply will become unable to meet demand growth , and thus from the oversupply of labor demand and supply gap into short supply , and demand gap is widening , 2020 was 398 million. This paper recommends appropriate adjustments according to actual situation , Zhejiang, the family planning policy , the establishment of foreign labor into flexible employment mechanism , the final form of labor supply and demand balanced growth and sustainable economic development of the situation.