Economic impact of imports on the Shanghai Empirical Analysis
|Keywords||Import trade Economic growth Simultaneous equation model Solow growth model Technology Spillover|
For a long time, in the evaluation of foreign trade's contribution to economic growth, it is almost regarded focus on exports, that only exports, the trade surplus have a positive effect on economic growth, while imports will offset this effect. In fact, the import and export of a country's citizens through international exchange to achieve maximum benefit from two aspects, both are indispensable. Based on this situation, this paper, according to the Shanghai 1990-2009 the relevant economic data and analysis, the main research import trade on economic growth. This paper uses empirical research methods, supplemented by theoretical analysis and proven method of combining the analysis illustrate the problem. Paper is divided into three parts, the first part is the overview of the whole article, including research background and significance of the relevant literature review and comment, and the logical framework and lack of innovation. Through previous research and the relationship between economic growth literature review, including theoretical and empirical aspects, so as to establish three major theoretical assumptions of this article. First, the import trade-led growth in demand for Shanghai's economic impact. Second, import trade have increased the supply of factors affecting Shanghai economy. Third, the import trade and advancement in technology affect the Shanghai economy. The second part is the empirical analysis and model checking. In analyzing the current situation of Shanghai's imports, including import and export volume, growth rates and comparative analysis of the national; imports Analysis; import trade enterprises Analysis; import trade to economic growth related parameters. Three model checking are: First, learn from Zhang Qin (2003) approach, from the perspective of establishing an aggregate demand equation, including investment, consumption equation, imports and national income identity equation simultaneous equations model, and calculated the contribution rate of imports and import Pull degrees two indicators; Second, learn Marwah Tavakoli (2004) model, imports of goods production function as an input factor, technological progress by ignoring the neoclassical growth model - an empirical analysis of the Solow model. Third, learn from Coe Helpman (1995) model to investigate import trade channels with domestic technology spillover effect relationship between per capita output, that is, from the perspective of indirect benefit spillover effects on economic growth. The final empirical results show that: short-term imports caused by consumption, investment and export growth will lead to economic growth in Shanghai; Shanghai long term supply of imports exceeded the bottleneck elements to promote the Shanghai economic growth. Further empirical findings: Imported brought technological spillover effects also contributed to economic growth in Shanghai, but Shanghai's own technological absorption capacity is not obvious. The third part is a summary of text and make recommendations to maximize import trade positive impact on economic growth and reduce the potential negative impacts of policies.