Influence of Numeracy and Cognitive Style on Bayesian Reasoning under Clear Nested-sets
|School||Hunan Normal University|
|Keywords||Bayesian inference Nested collection of relations Mathematical abilities Cognitive style|
Bayesian inference is widely used in the field of decision - making , judgment, medicine, science , engineering, technology and manufacturing processes , economic , political and military strategy , can improve the accuracy of the reasoning , can greatly improve the quality of decision - making . Around this problem, psychologist at home and abroad have done a lot of research and found that the results are still unsatisfactory reasoning is clearly a collection of nested relations . Therefore , nested sets clear relationship to explore the main factors of Bayesian inference has important theoretical and practical significance to improve and enhance the quality of decision-making and problem-solving ability . As Bayesian inference material \Experimental results show that : 1 natural frequency and form of tree diagram representation has contributed significantly to the Bayesian inference results support the concept of nested collections ; the mathematical ability Bayesian Reasoning influential , specific performance : the same characterization conditions, high mathematical ability of Bayesian Reasoning is better than the low mathematical ability ; natural frequency number and tree diagram dual representation of nested set relations mathematical ability Bayesian inference was the best scores , more than 50 % to 73.5% . Bayesian Reasoning with different cognitive styles were significant differences in the same characterization conditions , the field independent Bayesian Reasoning to be significantly better than the field dependence of Reasoning ; natural frequency and trees Figure dual representation nested set relations fate of independent Bayesian Reasoning best, more than 50% to 78.1% .