Dissertation
Dissertation > Environmental science, safety science > Environmental Quality Assessment and Environmental Monitoring > Analysis and Evaluation of Environmental Quality > General issues > Environmental Impact Assessment

Environmental Impact Assessment for Baoshan Regional Planning by Using System Dynamics

Author WangNuan
Tutor ZuoYanQing
School Shanghai Jiaotong University
Course Environmental Science
Keywords Baoshan District, Shanghai Planning EIA System Dynamics Environmental impact prediction
CLC X820.3
Type Master's thesis
Year 2011
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With the accelerated pace of urbanization, resource and environmental constraints further development of our cities, a lot of city resources unsustainable environmental overwhelmed, and these issues are closely related to the overall urban planning. Therefore, the comprehensive utilization of resources, environmental protection, sustainable economic development from full argument reasonable overall urban planning and development for the city's own characteristics, proposed reasonable optimization suggestions to guide the implementation of the plan, that the city overall plan to carry out environmental impact assessment. Planning and Environmental Assessment, however, is a relatively new field in our theory and applied research is still in its infancy. Construction project environmental impact assessment, and more emphasis on the control of the point, the lack of overall regional environmental carrying capacity assessment link, no way to determine the regional environmental carrying capacity and load levels, the overall urban planning large-scale, long cumulative environmental impact is difficult to to make an accurate assessment. Environmental impact in the process of planning and implementation of long aging, multi-level and higher-order non-linear, dynamic, self-organization and other characteristics, it is difficult to use general mathematical its quantitative description and analysis. This requires both a macro decision-making ability and focus on the structure of the system as a whole, but also to grasp the dynamic development of the system analysis method, system dynamics has unparalleled advantages in this regard. In the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta city group under the new situation, the Shanghai urban spatial development of the strategic center of gravity from the center of the city to the suburbs, the Baoshan gradually become Shanghai central city population, industry, function ease direction in the transfer process, the need timely preparation of planning to make a reasonable assessment, in order to adapt to the \This article combination of Baoshan District, Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau in Baoshan District Regional Planning Environmental Impact Assessment project topics, Baoshan District, socio-economic, natural ecology, resources and energy situation and comprehensive planning, special planning and implementation of a comprehensive analysis of on the basis of complex systems in Baoshan District is divided into four subsystems of the population, economy, resources and environment, and establish a system dynamics mathematical model. The actual data model experience positive verify the validity of the model, the model set of development scenarios. In the scenario analysis process, targeted to to change irrational planning model variables to optimize the planning scheme. From the angle of comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development of the society, economy, population, resources, environment, to provide a scientific basis for the preparation of the 12th Five-Year Plan \Study the following conclusions: (1) \matches the direction of development. (2) Baoshan District, thermal power generation can achieve self-sufficiency than abundant surface water resources, urban construction land and ecological land has become the main constraints to limit population growth. Based on population density estimates based on the experience of the development of the international metropolis, suitable for the size of the population of 205 million people, 250 million set in Baoshan District, \Baoshan District resources carrying capacity level. (3) simulation of the system dynamics model scenarios shows the \Striking contradiction to the rapid economic and population growth on resources and environmental pressure, looking for the pace of economic development in order to meet the demand for social transformation. In addition, optimization of these three aspects of industrial energy efficiency, residents of water-saving, garbage and emission reduction goals should be strengthened. Based on this, we propose the adjustment programs, in order to optimize the Baoshan District, \

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