Study on Quantitative Risk Analysis of the Overseas Projects
|School||Shanghai Jiaotong University|
|Keywords||risk management quantitative analysis AHP fuzzy evaluation|
There are a lot of Chinese enterprises who suffered the huge losses in the overseas projects just for lake of experience in the project risk management in the complex and changeable international market. So analysis of overseas project risk has significant practical significance.Based on the theory of risk assessment, targeting on overseas project risk management, the auther listed all the risks with classification and ranking, established AHP model of practicle cases for its quantitative solution. Among them, a factor analysis is carried out for ordering those factors which influence to the project risks. Further more, a fuzzy assessment model is suggested for the project bidding decision application with multiple risk factors, which will benefit to the enterprises for avoiding of reducing risks from very beginning of the project involvement.In practice, one can combine three of them—factor analysis, AHP, and fuzzy model for providing the contractors with best practice in selection, execution the project and also providing an efficient method and argument for the project implementation.