The Development Research on China International Investment Position
|School||Dongbei University of Finance|
|Keywords||international investment position the VAR model the current account the exchange rate|
According to the requirement of fifth edition handbook international payments by the international monetary fund (IMF), a complete the international balance of payments statistics shall include the international balance of payment (BOP) and international investment position (IIP), one is the flow of foreign economic statistics, the other is foreign economic stock statistics. Flow statistics reflect the participation of one country in international trade transactions during the accounting period, and stock statistics is the accumulation of international payments flow value of one country in a period. Flow analysis can reflect the profitability of international trade of a country in the short term, but stock analysis can reflect a country’s trade development trend in the long time and its economic strength in international trade.Comprehensive domestic scholars in the research of international payments to see, most scholars lay particular emphasis on the flow analysis of international balance of payment, but there is obviously deficiencies of analysis to China’s foreign economic trade stock which is international investment position, investigating its reason is mainly influenced by our country in related data access restrictions. However, it’s very important for the analysis of the international investment position, especially for our country, on the one hand, it can master the stock and composition of the foreign economic in order to measure and control the global economic integration, the uncertainty risk caused by capital flow; On the other hand, international investment position of the research for our country could provide strong supports for formulating the foreign economic development policies and effectively adjusting foreign assets and liabilities structure.This paper took the China international investment position table as the research object, and analyzed our international investment position status from two aspects mainly. One aspect based on analysis of the IIP overall status, this paper described and analyzed the our country IIP structure characteristics from specific gravity and growth rate double angle, and explored the reasons that produced significant characters. The other is adopting the Adjusted Cumulative Current Account to estimate the our country IIP historical data, and then this paper reflected the quantitative relationship between the NIIP and exchange rate, stock price index, per capita gross domestic product through the establishment of vector auto regression model (VAR), and applied the co-integration tests, variance decomposition, impulse response function and vector error correction model(VEC) to analyze the influences of the above three factors affecting China’s net international investment position in short term and long term.Through the statistical describes analysis and VAR model measurement analysis, this paper drew the key conclusions follows.First, our country international investment condition develops well overall. Since China implemented the policy of reform and opening up, China broad market prospect has attracted the global investors, and with China’s accession to the WTO and integrating into the world economy gradually, China enterprise are actively implementing the strategy of "going out", the fierce international competition greatly promote the development of China’s international investment.Second, there is a lack of China’s foreign direct investment, and long-term foreign investment need to be strengthened. Direct investment and securities investment can approximate as long and short term investment, compared to the proportion of parts in China’s foreign assets and liabilities, it is not hard to find that our country enterprise pay attention to a more short-term gain and long-term investment are obvious deficiencies in foreign investment strategy.Third, China’s foreign exchange reserves had larger scale more than good, in Reserve assets had the largest proportion in China’s foreign assets, an average of which more than 65%, and the ratio of foreign exchange reserves of reserve assets was more than 98%. A large number of foreign exchange reserves shows that China’s foreign trade has outstanding achievements during past thirty years, however, the government have to face huge challenges how to use the huge foreign exchange assets and how to make the foreign exchange wealth current value maintained and added.Fourth, other investment item had a larger proportion of foreign assets and liabilities, and it should be given appropriate adjustments. Classification of "other" is generally a smaller proportion of part relative to other important parts. But in our international investment position the project the other items had larger proportion of assets and liabilities, even more than individual general items. In order to avoid from the unnecessary research analysis ambiguity, here is an advice to adjust appropriately to other investment item of our country investment positions table.Fifth, financial crisis on our country’s economic influence appeared in full in 2009. In 2008, the global financial crisis caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis made the world economy suffer severe impact in a number of countries, economies were showing different degree of a recession, and China’s foreign debt project data show that the financial crisis on our country’s economic impact began to fully revealed in 2009.Sixth, the exchange rate and the stock index all have the influence of different level on China net international investment position, both the two will cause active impact of the net international investment position in the short term, and will cause negative impact of the net international investment position in the long term.Economic globalization is the future tendency of international economic development. Therefore, the future of the investment must look around the world to keep up with the requirements of the development of times. Although China’s international investment fields have walked out of a strong first step, made considerable achievements, but how to deal with the international economic risk, accept the challenge of international competition, also we need to consider the question in the present. In the future, we might consider of policy measures from the main factors which effect on our country’s international investment position, and the specific can make effort from several aspects:1. To speed up the pace of RMB internationalization, improve in the international monetary system status; 2. Improve financial system, optimize the financial system structure; 3. Strengthen financial regulation, prevent capital flows risk and currency risk with wrong.