A Research on the Balance of Trade between China and the United States
|School||Hebei University of Technology|
|Keywords||Sino-US trade trade statistical system principle of ownership|
The Sino-US trade has made a great of achievement since 1979, when the above-metionedcountries established diplomatic relations. Now the United States has already come to be the toptrade fellow of China, and China has also placed third within America’s trade fellow. Accordingto traditional theory of international trade, a main purpose of one’s participating to internationaltrade is to exert one’s comparative advantage and make a profit on it. However, the increasingscale of the bilateral margin seems to contrary to the characteristic of co-prosperity. In writer’sopinion, a crucial reason is the global industrial transfer. We should attach more importance toits influence. Therefore, Based on both theoretical and empirical analysis method, this paper willattempt to reaserch a methodology in order to make an objective estimation of the balance of theSino-US trade.Firstly, the paper studies the cause and effect of trade imbalance. Then it lays emphasis onthe empirical study of the ways and means of estimating and then takes a statistical reaserch tofind how large it should be in order to discuss the situation of the balance of trade between Chinaand US. This section includes two main parts: In the first part, the paper takes a micro analysis toenhance the consistency of the data we have got. Then at the second part, we attempt to discussthe real scale of the bilateral margin between China and US. The result indicate that on one hand,the disagreement on statistic is caused by different treatment of trade terms and of re-export, andin macro aspect, the global industrial transfer and restraint of trade are considered as two mainreasons in institutional layer. On the other hand, it doesn’t make sense to regard the increase ofunemployment of America’s manufacturing as a result of trade imbalance. At last, through theempirical analysis we find that the trade statistical system, an underlying factor which is usuallyignored by us, has palyed a much more important role than ever before.Then, the paper also puts forward the views that measures must been taken to improve tradebalance. Reconsiderate balance of Sino-US trade in a more objective way; improve the bilateralrelationship with the United States; expand the inner demands ourselves and at last establish newstatistical system according to the principle of ownership.