Research on the Subway Travel Demand Based on Multiply Social & Economic Factors
|School||Central South University|
|Course||Transportation Planning and Management|
|Keywords||Metro passenger traffic Socio-economic variables Time Series Exponential smoothing model Dynamic regression models|
With the rapid economic development and continuous improvement of the total population , the major cities of the country is facing severe traffic problems , vigorously develop urban rail transit can ease urban traffic congestion problems . China 's urban rail transit development after 40 years of history , has experienced twists and turns , and is now entering a period of rapid development . Until the end of 2010 , there are 11 cities in the operations of urban rail transit lines , in addition to more than 20 cities are building or planning the construction of urban rail transit lines . The rapid development of rail transportation has played a positive role to ease the traffic pressure , promote urban development . Thesis Shenzhen Metro as the object of study , analysis of the impact of socio-economic variables subway passenger demand , using time series analysis to predict the Shenzhen subway passenger demand last econometric model to study the demand for subway travel . This paper studies the content and conclusions are as follows : (1 ) application of the basic theory and econometrics travel demand theory , subway travel demand analysis framework . ( 2) The combination of the theory of demand for passenger travel and travel behavior analysis , travel demand models . ( 3) using the exponential smoothing model to predict the the Shenzhen subway passenger traffic , average ticket price , and calculate the fare income (4 ) to build a dynamic regression model , the model includes the fare , population , CPI, employment , per capita disposable socio - economic variables such as income , using Eviews software processing as well as the ARCH test and cointegration test of the regression model , the specific form of the model . Through this analysis , can understand the impact of socio-economic variables on the subway passenger volume , contribute to the relevant departments to develop appropriate policies to guide travelers to make a choice between the subway and other travel modes . This will not only divert traffic flow , but also make full use of the various transportation resources to ease traffic congestion . In addition , through the analysis of this article can draw reasonable fares and other public policies contribute to good subway operators , subway sustainable development in order to achieve conclusion .