Study on Real Estate Investment Decision-making Model Based on VaR Theory
|Keywords||Real estate Project VaR Risk Value Monte Carlo|
Real estate is an important area of ??investment, benefits and risks of coexistence of two inseparable aspects of investment projects . Currently used to guide the real estate project investment decision model or blindly focus on investment income or blindly to avoid risks, the risks and value of linking research to guide investment decisions less, and yet there is a small amount of such a model or formula derivation burdensome calculation process complex issues , is not conducive to investors to understand, is not conducive to widespread use. Based on this , we study theoretical constructs based on VaR real estate project investment decision model , aimed at a more concise formula to get a glance of the results, and as far as possible so that the model provides a method of operation is simple, easy to understand the specific content can for the majority of investors in real estate projects to provide a reference and guide them to make rational investment decisions. In this thesis, this article focuses on the theories VaR is briefly introduced, and the basic characteristics of real estate projects were analyzed , focusing on the risk characteristics of the project from the real estate and value characteristics to be analyzed. In the real estate project-related characteristics were analyzed later , the authors propose a theory based on VaR real estate project investment decision model construction method . In this model, the establishment of risk factors and the mapping relationship between income and select NPV NPV function as a risk-benefit and in accordance with the need for NPV NPV formula has been adjusted , and discusses risk factors principle for determining the probability distribution is given the method of calculating the VaR . In this process , the confidence level can be adjusted through the real estate projects to meet investor preferences for different risk levels . Finally, empirical research, select Crystal Ball as a computational tool for the investment decision-making model is validated , proven VaR theory in the real estate investment decision with good operability.