Dissertation
Dissertation > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods

An Empirical Investigation of the Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth in China

Author MaXia
Tutor HuangTaiYan
School Liaoning University
Course National Economics
Keywords Total exports Unit root test Granger causality test Error correction model Economic growth
CLC F752.62;F224
Type Master's thesis
Year 2011
Downloads 58
Quotes 0
Download Dissertation

The impact of exports on economic growth has been a hotspot of Economic Research study the linkage between foreign trade and economic growth is an important aspect of a country to develop economic strategy . But both in theoretical research and empirical research , economists this television today . Since the reform and opening up , China 's economic growth and exports has made great achievements , China 's growth from a poor and backward country is the world 's second largest economy , the world's largest foreign exchange reserves . The growth of China 's economy and foreign trade provides a rich case study for economists . Chinese scholars on export promotion of China's economic growth through the different estimates and analysis tools been a lot of research , the conclusion is also a wide variety of each of said word . To this end, we considered necessary to conduct further research . On the basis of previous studies , through theoretical analysis of the combined method and empirical analysis of the impact of exports on economic growth at two levels : (1) Export really promote China's economic growth ; ( 2 ) promote economic growth in exports What are the mechanisms . Firstly, combing the theory on exports and economic growth , depending on the economic theory summed export mechanism to promote economic growth , as a theoretical basis for analysis in this paper . 1978-2008 30 years of export and GDP data for the sample , exports and GDP as a variable to analyze the relationship between the two . First unit root test of time-series data , then smooth the data directly to the VAR model does not consider the functional relationship between the two , in the establishment of both the VAR model to analyze the optimal number of lags in on the basis of both the Granger causality test , the test showed the presence of unidirectional causality exports to economic growth . Determine the causal relationship between exports as an explanatory variable GDP as explanatory variables , model building, and the use of the the EG method of testing variables cointegration relationship , established on the basis of short-term fluctuations on the export of error correction model the impact of the GDP . Finally, to conclude : exports to stimulate the growth of the Chinese economy . Finally, based on empirical conclusions put forward policy recommendations to improve China's export .

Related Dissertations
More Dissertations