An Empirical Investigation of the Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth in China
|Keywords||Total exports Unit root test Granger causality test Error correction model Economic growth|
The impact of exports on economic growth has been a hotspot of Economic Research study the linkage between foreign trade and economic growth is an important aspect of a country to develop economic strategy . But both in theoretical research and empirical research , economists this television today . Since the reform and opening up , China 's economic growth and exports has made great achievements , China 's growth from a poor and backward country is the world 's second largest economy , the world's largest foreign exchange reserves . The growth of China 's economy and foreign trade provides a rich case study for economists . Chinese scholars on export promotion of China's economic growth through the different estimates and analysis tools been a lot of research , the conclusion is also a wide variety of each of said word . To this end, we considered necessary to conduct further research . On the basis of previous studies , through theoretical analysis of the combined method and empirical analysis of the impact of exports on economic growth at two levels : (1) Export really promote China's economic growth ; ( 2 ) promote economic growth in exports What are the mechanisms . Firstly, combing the theory on exports and economic growth , depending on the economic theory summed export mechanism to promote economic growth , as a theoretical basis for analysis in this paper . 1978-2008 30 years of export and GDP data for the sample , exports and GDP as a variable to analyze the relationship between the two . First unit root test of time-series data , then smooth the data directly to the VAR model does not consider the functional relationship between the two , in the establishment of both the VAR model to analyze the optimal number of lags in on the basis of both the Granger causality test , the test showed the presence of unidirectional causality exports to economic growth . Determine the causal relationship between exports as an explanatory variable GDP as explanatory variables , model building, and the use of the the EG method of testing variables cointegration relationship , established on the basis of short-term fluctuations on the export of error correction model the impact of the GDP . Finally, to conclude : exports to stimulate the growth of the Chinese economy . Finally, based on empirical conclusions put forward policy recommendations to improve China's export .