Study on Typhoon Wind Field Model in Xiamen Area
|Keywords||Risk analysis Probability model Wind field simulation Extreme wind velocity distribution Wind speed attenuation model|
China is one of the regions of the world most affected by typhoon, typhoons every year, resulting in huge economic losses and casualties. Prone greatly increased in recent years, due to accelerated coastal urbanization, population growth and social wealth intensive rapid growth, leading to disaster vulnerability and disaster chain of coastal cities and buildings under typhoon conditions. Coastal typhoon areas, particularly the major cities in order to reduce the loss of typhoon disasters, wind risk analysis is all the more important. Research typhoon wind field physical model with the theories and methods of risk analysis to mitigate the typhoon disasters; the applications mature typhoon physical model and typhoons parameter data using numerical methods to simulate the typhoon wind speed for typhoon risk analysis is commonly used by international method. Xiamen city, for example, a the typhoon risk analysis of the system, and to explore the establishment of a probabilistic model and wind speed landing typhoons along the path attenuation model. The main contents of this article as: First, a the Xiamen region typhoon occurred probability model, and typhoons key parameter probability model. Typhoon historical data analysis and processing, extraction of typhoon landfall probability typhoon moving speed, radius of maximum wind speed, the typhoon center differential pressure and the minimum distance and other parameters, the statistical analysis of the encounter probability and the key parameters of the probabilistic model; using the fitted The goodness of fit test methods, comparative study of different probability model of the applicability of the various parameters. Extreme wind velocity of the application of the Monte-Carlo method based on random sampling parameters of analog Typhoon; combination of mature typhoon wind field model simulated a different time period (100 years, 200 years, 500 years, 1000) sequence; wind sequence generated by the model were extreme wind speed statistical analysis, projections have been different return periods and landscapes extreme wind, very consistent results with experimental data, we estimate the wind speed and the measured wind speed. Finally, using a grid-based division, using statistical analysis and numerical analysis of the historical data, landing Xiamen typhoon path probability model to analyze the probability the typhoon landfall along the path of each block attacks; establish typhoon landfall along the path of the wind speed attenuation model to arrive at the basic wind speed of the Xiamen typhoon risk analysis; single typhoon wind speed along the path attenuation make predictions, provide a more rational basis for the analysis of the risk of loss of the single typhoon specific regional building assessment. This study in the case of extreme wind velocity of the lack of information on the typhoon-prone coastal areas of southeast hurricane risk analysis and determine design wind loads provides a feasible way wind resistant design of major projects in China's southeast coastal areas, anti disaster preparedness and mitigation planning to provide a scientific basis. In addition, the wind speed along the path of the typhoon attenuation law, combined with the typhoon struck along the path probability, provide a more rational basis for the analysis of economic loss assessment of typhoon event-based local area buildings.