System Dynamics Research on Urban Public Safety
|School||Shandong University of Science and Technology|
|Course||Safety Technology and Engineering|
|Keywords||urban public safety influencing factor system dynamics system archetype urban public safety level|
With the acceleration of urbanization, urban public safety incident occurs frequently, and urban safety problem is becoming more and more serious. Urban public safety refers to the safety of urban and its personnel, property, the urban lifeline and other important systems. This paper analyses the influencing factors of urban public safety. Combining with interpretive structural model, this paper establishes the urban public safety influencing factor system and the ISM model of influencing factors in urban public safety, and figure out surface and deep influencing factors of urban public safety with further analysis.Using system dynamics theory, introducing the concept of system archetype, and based on the analysis of influencing factors system of urban public safety, this paper establishes the basic SD model tree of flow rate in urban public safety system and builds the archetype generating set, and eventually builds the overall fundamental mode flow diagram of urban public safety system. Consisting of key systems and key subfactors which affect the urban public safety, This flow diagram model shows the action mechanism of people’s behavior, public safety management and other influencing factors on urban public security system in the form of flow graph.Combining with the system dynamics simulation software Vensim_PLE, this paper builds causality diagram of urban public safety system from input-output angle, gives the corresponding system dynamics equation, and build up SD flow diagram of safety investment-the level of total system safety, which can realize quantitative analysis of the urban public safety level. Finally, according to urban public safety influencing factor system and system dynamics analysis, this paper presents prevention measures of urban public safety accidents, provides corresponding suggestions in legal supervision, public safety management and other aspects to help improve the urban public safety level.