Economic Crisis and the Study of Early-Warning Index System
|School||East China Normal University|
|Course||Scientific socialism and international communist movement|
|Keywords||Economic crisis Factor Conduction process Warning Index|
The occurrence and development of any kind of things in the world are not linear, and economic development could not have been sustained to carry. Economic crisis as a macroeconomic phenomenon, is an inevitable phenomenon in the market in the process of economic development. The economic history of the development of any economic system in the course of its operation, may appear severe fluctuations even crisis severely damaged the structure of the economic system. In the history of Western economies, the economic gurus from different angles of the economic crisis is very comprehensive and in-depth research. In a transitional period in China, the rapid development of the market economy, but at the same time the risk factors in the economic operation are accumulating. Loyal to the first place in order to prevent, mitigate or avoid serious damage of the economic crisis and combat the economic crisis must be established early warning indicator system, in order to forecast significant fluctuations in the economic operation even crisis. Writing: mainly from the following four chapters the first chapter, the definition of several concepts simple. This chapter describes the three concepts, the economic cycle, the economic crisis and the economic crisis of the cycle, finishing out of the economic crisis cyclical fluctuations of the three kinds of types, so that the overall understanding of the economic crisis, to grasp the economic crisis of the characteristics, understanding the economic crisis of enormous destructive . Second chapter on the history of several economic masters of the economic crisis resolution. Focused combing and introduced chapter seven seven master theory focuses seize what risk factors to these economists, is how to analyze these factors conduction process sorted out from the corresponding indicators in order to lay the analytical framework and theoretical foundation for the establishment of early warning indicator system. Chapter 3, the economic crisis and the various factors and indicators comb. This chapter is the chapter of the past and a transition. This chapter is divided into two aspects: First, on the basis of the brief introduction to system theory and the concept of equilibrium, summed up the immense destructiveness of the economic crisis on the equilibrium of the economic system: the second is, from the point of view of system theory, the factors that led to the economic crisis divided into two categories, economic factors and non-economic factors and a general analysis and research. Thus generalize these two channels of the total product indicators and net indicators within the economic system in order to be deeply involved in the perspective factors caused the economic crisis, to explore the economic crisis of the early warning index system. The fourth chapter, the establishment of a system of early warning indicators of the economic crisis. This chapter is the most important of the full text. This chapter introduced from two major aspects: First, the introduction of the four stages of development of the system of early warning indicators of the economic crisis; Second, look for the police prime → warning signs → → according to the police to confirm the righteous pre-alarm degree of logical order to design a set of early warning The index system. Crisis factors combed throughout this section of the red line, and on this basis the selection of the indicators of crisis, and indicators cordon determination is the key for police to prediction.