Dissertation
Dissertation > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods

The Practical Research of Chinese Real Estate Cycle

Author WangMingTao
Tutor LiuChaoMing
School Southwest Jiaotong University
Course Industrial Economics
Keywords Real Estate Cycle Impact - conduction model Causality test Asymmetric test
CLC F224
Type Master's thesis
Year 2005
Downloads 367
Quotes 2
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The thesis objective existence of the main line of the real estate cycle of the real estate cycle fluctuations, the formation mechanism of the real estate cycle fluctuations, fluctuations in the real estate cycle internal and exogenous factors and the relationship between fluctuations in the real estate cycle asymmetry and fluctuations trend the empirical research. Its purpose is to reveal the characteristics and laws governing the operation of the real estate cycle in China in the past 20 years (1988-2004). The existence of the Chinese real estate cycle is the basis of arguments in this article. The runs test method to test a group of time series exists a periodic pattern. Wald a 沃尔费威茨 runs test method the inspection representative time series of real estate development in China, found that the sequence relative to the long-term trend shows the upward or downward movement of the aggregation of the real estate market regularity rather than random fluctuations. The formation mechanism of the real estate cycle is an important part of the real estate cycle research. Impact - conduction theory both from the internal mechanism and external mechanisms to study the formation mechanism of the economic cycle, with a better explanation. The theory is the introduction of the real estate cycle formation mechanism studies, on the basis of qualitative analysis to establish the mathematical model. The model reflects the real estate cycle is the result of the combined effects of internal and external mechanisms. The factors affecting the real estate cycle can be divided into endogenous factors and exogenous factors, all kinds of factors through their respective mechanisms affect the real estate cycle to run. Limited to qualitative analysis, however, is often a lack of convincing, whether those factors really affect the real estate cycle? Granger causality test to solve the problem of quantitative research methods. The application of this method to do the measurement test results show that: GDP, urbanization is the single of the real estate cycle Granger, real estate investment and real estate cycles each other due Granger. Further confirmed the investment cycle cointegrated error correction model, the model reflects the dynamic adjustment of the relationship between the two. The asymmetry is one of the important characteristics of the real estate cycle fluctuations. Asymmetry is generally divided into two types: the depth asymmetry and offset asymmetry, depth of asymmetric reflect the relationship between the magnitude of the contraction amplitude cycle expansion, offset asymmetric reflect the economic cycle. \Start the relationship between speed and brake speed. Statistical development has given us the research asymmetry tools. The use of such tools of China's real estate cycle asymmetry results show that the performance of the real estate cycle is spiking upward Descent, depth dilated asymmetric. Fluctuations in the real estate cycle trend is to look at the vision of development of real estate development in the past, present and future. Calculated based on historical data of real estate growth rate and the growth rate reasonable range, and is complemented by the average potential fluctuations in the number, growth rate and degree of dispersion of a number of indicators of the real estate cycle fluctuations trend analyzes. Studies have shown that the Chinese real estate cycle has moved from the \

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