Emergy Input-output Analysis and Prediction of Agricultural System in Jiangsu Province
|Course||Mechanical Design and Theory|
|Keywords||Jiangsu Province Agricultural eco- economic system Emergy analysis Influencing factors Contribution rate Forecast|
This thesis, Jiangsu agricultural eco- economic system as the research object , the Jiangsu agricultural input and output, sustainable development , evaluation , and analysis of the main factors to affect the development of , the contribution rate of agricultural machinery is estimated and discussion. Finally, a Jiangsu agricultural recent development to predict , and promote the development of recommendations . 1982-2003 Agricultural Emergy analysis of time series, and to overcome the shortcomings of the the static energy value analysis . Through a series of emergy evaluation index analysis , that the the Jiangsu agricultural eco- economic system is in the stage of development of modern agriculture , the energy value of the investment structure in a better sustainable development of the state . Use can impact on the the Jiangsu agricultural development major factor and its influence in the size of the value of the input and output time series analysis , missing value analysis , combined with the application of the method of factor analysis and regression analysis to avoid distortion of agricultural development in the multiple regression model . C-D production function model to analyze the contribution rate of agricultural machinery . The study shows that the cultural level of farmers , fertilizer inputs, agricultural electrification and mechanization is a major contributing factor of the agricultural output , agricultural labor input in agricultural output has a negative correlation , and last year the price of agricultural products has a significant effect on agricultural production for the coming year . This paper chaotic prediction method and neural network with chaotic combination forecasting method is applied to agricultural output prediction , the prediction accuracy is significantly improved . Expected to farming in Jiangsu experienced in recent years, the lowest valley will gradually restored , the livestock sector generates more stable , forestry and fisheries output will continue to rise in 2004 and 2005 , the Agricultural energy value of the total output will reach 2180 × 10 more than 20 sup> sej in 2003 or so and 2250 × the 10 20 sup> sej in 2003 . Finally, a number of recommendations to promote agricultural development in Jiangsu Province .