Dissertation > Industrial Technology > Automation technology,computer technology > Computing technology,computer technology > General issues > Theories, methods

The Research of Prediction Model Based on Grey System Theory

Author ZhangYongBo
Tutor YuJingShan
School Harbin Engineering University
Course Applied Computer Technology
Keywords Grey system Gray model Grey Forecasting
Type Master's thesis
Year 2005
Downloads 1387
Quotes 39
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This paper is to study the application of gray system theory in the prediction model . Gray system theory in the forecast area , using GM (1,1) model . On this basis , we then studied in several special cases , how the GM (1,1) model is improved so that the gray forecast to better meet the actual application . When the actual historical data sequence is growing too fast or too fast decrease , we can not be blind use of GM (1,1) model . Otherwise , the prediction of the effect will be very poor , the article uses the sequence operator GM (1,1) model successfully solve this problem . The same improved residual GM (1,1) model . To expand the range of applications , residual GM (1,1) model . When the actual system is the significant impact of the national policy , it will have to take into account this factor and direct application of GM (1,1) model . Otherwise, the results will be quite poor predicted simply not satisfactory . This paper presents an Improved Method of GM (1,1) model , consider the policy implications of GM (1,1) model . Verified by an example , the effect is also very good . Finally, some concluding remarks , and pointed out that further research work .

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