The Research of Prediction Model Based on Grey System Theory
|School||Harbin Engineering University|
|Course||Applied Computer Technology|
|Keywords||Grey system Gray model Grey Forecasting|
This paper is to study the application of gray system theory in the prediction model . Gray system theory in the forecast area , using GM (1,1) model . On this basis , we then studied in several special cases , how the GM (1,1) model is improved so that the gray forecast to better meet the actual application . When the actual historical data sequence is growing too fast or too fast decrease , we can not be blind use of GM (1,1) model . Otherwise , the prediction of the effect will be very poor , the article uses the sequence operator GM (1,1) model successfully solve this problem . The same improved residual GM (1,1) model . To expand the range of applications , residual GM (1,1) model . When the actual system is the significant impact of the national policy , it will have to take into account this factor and direct application of GM (1,1) model . Otherwise, the results will be quite poor predicted simply not satisfactory . This paper presents an Improved Method of GM (1,1) model , consider the policy implications of GM (1,1) model . Verified by an example , the effect is also very good . Finally, some concluding remarks , and pointed out that further research work .