Study on Supervising and Warning System of Real Estate Industry in China
|Keywords||Economic Fluctuation Real Estate Industry Economic Early Warning System Time Difference Relevance Analysis Principal Component Analysis|
The experience of economic growth and development in many countries indicate that economic fluctuation is a concomitant phenomenon of economic growth. Following the high inflation of the economy there must be the economic conflation, and every intense fluctuation process to some extent destroy the economy and waste the natural resources in a large scale. Like macro-economy, the development of real estate industry also shows a phenomenon of fluctuation. Therefore, in order to avoid this situation, we should analyze the internal factors and external shocks of the fluctuation of real estate industry rely on the data in history and at present, to set up the early warning system by supervising the index system to which relate the real estate industry. We can predict the future economic fluctuation trends with the early warning system and applies it to the economic administration. It is of more important and significance to the development of real estate in China. This essay probes into the economic early warning system by using theoretic and case studies. The author systematically analyzes the definition of early warning system and the theories and methods of the early warning system, especially emphases on the warning condition index. The essay also has a thorough discuss on the selection of the warning sign index. Based on these studies, the author designs the early warning system in China. The essay has first time discuss the vacancy rate and the reason of the vacancy rate is the warning condition index of the early warning system or not, point out the vacancy rate is not suitable for the warning condition index, and that the sales ration with out preselled proportion as the warning condition index. There is a point of view that the housing vacancy rate in China goes beyond the international warming line at present, namely the housing vacancy rate in China is 26% which exceeds the international warming rate of 10%-15%. The paper has studied the origination and development of it, pointed out its some mistakes, analyzed the housing vacancy rate produced by this kind of theory in some important cities in China, come to a conclusion that there isn’t a generally acknowledged warming line in the world. The present calculate way of the vacancy rate in our country is go beyond the original meaning of it, in fact, it is a index of the housing overstock. So there would be a suggestion of putting rightly the vacancy rate as the index of housing overstock, and setting up the criterion and range of it. In the empirical studies of Real estate in China, the author chooses the warning condition index with the use of quantitative and qualitative methods. Then depend on these methods, the author calculates the warning level, the warning limit, and the synthesized warning index which shows a over warming condition of real estate in China in 2004.