Study on Dalian’s Economic Early-warning and Forecast Model
|School||Dalian University of Technology|
|Keywords||economic fluctuation economic early-warning index system forecast model|
The growth of economy is not linear, but always shows some kind of fluctuation. If the fluctuation goes beyond a certain range, it will damage the development of economy;therefore, the research of economic early-warning is needed. Economic early-warning means to find the laws of economic periods and fluctuation through research and analyze, in order to forecast the status in quo and the future of economic development, and ensures a stable development.This paper is based on three steps:First, several concepts are defined. The history and some research measures of economic early-warning are explained. We introduced the definition and history of economic early-warning, and the relationship of economic early-warning and economic period. Based on that, general research measures and models of economic early-warning are also introduced.Second, forecast models by years. 26 yearly indexes are chosen. We establish 5 economic forecast models of consumption, investment, export, loan and regional production. Through analyze and forecast on the models, we find some problems and shortages on Dalian’s economic development, and give some advice.Third, monthly forecast model. We forecast Dalian’s economic growth monthly. We divide 13 monthly economic indexes into 4 modules: demand, supply, price and currency, through which we set up 9 equations. With the correlation between these variables, we find the relation in all aspects of Dalian’s economy monthly.